Manchester United

Why Manchester United need to buy a top class striker for next season

Analysing Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s season statistically

I decided to look at the raw statistics for strikers in the Premier League and the La Liga, the two top leagues in the world.

First, let us take a look at the number of goals and the number of shots of all the strikers who have scored more than 10 in the league.

Rank	Name	Shots per Goal	Goals per Shot	Total Shots	Total Goals
1	Alexandre Lacazette	3.38	0.3	71	21
2	Falcao	3.38	0.3	54	16
3	Edinson Cavani	3.62	0.28	94	26
4	Harry Kane	3.63	0.28	69	19
5	Andrea Belotti	3.64	0.28	80	22
6	Romelu Lukaku	3.82	0.26	65	17
7	Aubameyang	3.86	0.26	81	21
8	Iago Aspas	3.93	0.25	55	14
9	Timo Werner	4.0	0.25	52	13
10	Marco Borriello	4.08	0.24	49	12
11	Anthony Modeste	4.13	0.24	66	16
12	Luis Suárez	4.16	0.24	79	19
13	Bafétimbi Gomis	4.31	0.23	69	16
14	Sadio Mané	4.33	0.23	52	12
15	Diego Costa	4.41	0.23	75	17
16	Jermain Defoe	4.57	0.22	64	14
17	Gonzalo Higuaín	4.58	0.22	87	19
18	Robert Lewandowski	4.68	0.21	89	19
19	Dele Alli	4.92	0.2	64	13
20	Lionel Messi	5.0	0.2	115	23
21	Nikola Kalinic	5.17	0.19	62	12
22	Mauro Icardi	5.29	0.19	90	17
23	Alexis Sánchez	5.35	0.19	91	17
24	Dries Mertens	5.44	0.18	98	18
25	Antoine Griezmann	5.5	0.18	66	12
26	Cristiano Ronaldo	6.5	0.15	117	18
27	Ciro Immobile	6.5	0.15	104	16
28	Sergio Agüero	7.08	0.14	85	12
29	Edin Dzeko	7.21	0.14	137	19
30	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	7.33	0.14	110	15

Zlatan is at the bottom of this list, at 7.33 shots per goal. With Zlatan’s style of play (he’s not Sanchez / Hazard), he creates very little of his own chances, this means the team needs to create over 7 chances for him to score 1 goal. In comparison to the top performers in this chart, I’d first declare that nearly all of these guys create more goals for themselves (look at Kane’s goal against Everton, half of Messi’s goals, and on, and on), but even with that, their teams only need to create half as many for their strikers to score than United do for Zlatan.

This, for me, is one of the key reasons why United’s home stats really aren’t that surprising. They are not firing on all cylinders anywhere, really, but when your main and central forward is wasting these many chances, unless you’re always going to keep a clean sheet , you have to create nearly 20 chances to score 2 goals and win a game.

Rank	Name	Shots per On Target Shot	On Target Shots per Shot	Total Shots	Total On Target Shots
1	Romelu Lukaku	1.51	0.66	65	43
2	Nikola Kalinic	1.55	0.65	62	40
3	Aubameyang	1.56	0.64	81	52
4	Sadio Mané	1.58	0.63	52	33
5	Harry Kane	1.6	0.62	69	43
6	Alexandre Lacazette	1.61	0.62	71	44
7	Dries Mertens	1.61	0.62	98	61
8	Timo Werner	1.63	0.62	52	32
9	Diego Costa	1.63	0.61	75	46
10	Antoine Griezmann	1.65	0.61	66	40
11	Iago Aspas	1.67	0.6	55	33
12	Bafétimbi Gomis	1.68	0.59	69	41
13	Marco Borriello	1.69	0.59	49	29
14	Falcao	1.69	0.59	54	32
15	Lionel Messi	1.69	0.59	115	68
16	Alexis Sánchez	1.69	0.59	91	54
17	Ciro Immobile	1.7	0.59	104	61
18	Dele Alli	1.73	0.58	64	37
19	Jermain Defoe	1.73	0.58	64	37
20	Gonzalo Higuaín	1.74	0.57	87	50
21	Sergio Agüero	1.77	0.56	85	48
22	Edinson Cavani	1.77	0.56	94	53
23	Andrea Belotti	1.78	0.56	80	45
24	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	1.86	0.54	110	59
25	Luis Suárez	1.88	0.53	79	42
26	Edin Dzeko	1.96	0.51	137	70
27	Robert Lewandowski	2.02	0.49	89	44
28	Cristiano Ronaldo	2.17	0.46	117	54
29	Anthony Modeste	2.2	0.45	66	30
30	Mauro Icardi	2.73	0.37	90	33

Rank	Name	On Target Shots per Goal	Goals per On Target Shot	Total On Target Shots	Total Goals
1	Anthony Modeste	1.88	0.53	30	16
2	Mauro Icardi	1.94	0.52	33	17
3	Falcao	2.0	0.5	32	16
4	Edinson Cavani	2.04	0.49	53	26
5	Andrea Belotti	2.05	0.49	45	22
6	Alexandre Lacazette	2.1	0.48	44	21
7	Luis Suárez	2.21	0.45	42	19
8	Harry Kane	2.26	0.44	43	19
9	Robert Lewandowski	2.32	0.43	44	19
10	Iago Aspas	2.36	0.42	33	14
11	Marco Borriello	2.42	0.41	29	12
12	Timo Werner	2.46	0.41	32	13
13	Aubameyang	2.48	0.4	52	21
14	Romelu Lukaku	2.53	0.4	43	17
15	Bafétimbi Gomis	2.56	0.39	41	16
16	Gonzalo Higuaín	2.63	0.38	50	19
17	Jermain Defoe	2.64	0.38	37	14
18	Diego Costa	2.71	0.37	46	17
19	Sadio Mané	2.75	0.36	33	12
20	Dele Alli	2.85	0.35	37	13
21	Lionel Messi	2.96	0.34	68	23
22	Cristiano Ronaldo	3.0	0.33	54	18
23	Alexis Sánchez	3.18	0.31	54	17
24	Antoine Griezmann	3.33	0.3	40	12
25	Nikola Kalinic	3.33	0.3	40	12
26	Dries Mertens	3.39	0.3	61	18
27	Edin Dzeko	3.68	0.27	70	19
28	Ciro Immobile	3.81	0.26	61	16
29	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	3.93	0.25	59	15
30	Sergio Agüero	4.0	0.25	48	12

These two next stats need to be taken as a pair, IMO, which is shown perfectly by Mauro Icardi. Mauro is the worst performer for the number of on target shots per shot, 2.73. Out of his 90 shots, only 33 have been on target. But, he’s doing so well because of the efficiency of those shots he scores a goal from every 1.94 shot on target Out of his 33 on target shots, he’s scored 17 goals.

This shows Zlatan up in quite a bad light yet again. He has a really bad conversion rate of 110 shots for 59 shots on target, but of those 59 shots on target, he’s scored only 15 goals, with Sergio Aguero being worse (surprisingly, or not, considering the season he’s having).

Is Zlatan doing fantastically well for a 35 year old? Absolutely, yes he is. Is he having a fantastic season by all accounts? Really and truly not. He absolutely is part of the problem United are having, and whether or not United have the replacement within their ranks or not (Martial / Rashford / … Rooney / Wilson / Burkart…), I’ve no idea, but if they go into next season with Zlatan as the main man in the front-line, they’ll probably have a similar wasteful season.

These days, strikers who boast a “one in two” ratio are hardly even spoken about. Players like Messi, Ronaldo and Suarez, the real elite forward players, have really pushed beyond that. United are the current moment are not in a position to sign any one of them, but they should go all out in the summer for a striker who is more efficient than Zlatan is at the moment.

Rank	Name	Shots per Goal	Goals per Shot	Shots per On Target Shot	On Target Shots per Shot	On Target Shots per Goal	Goals per On Target Shot	Total Shots	Total On Target Shots	Total Goals
1	Alexandre Lacazette	3.38	0.3	1.61	0.62	2.1	0.48	71	44	21
2	Falcao	3.38	0.3	1.69	0.59	2.0	0.5	54	32	16
3	Edinson Cavani	3.62	0.28	1.77	0.56	2.04	0.49	94	53	26
4	Harry Kane	3.63	0.28	1.6	0.62	2.26	0.44	69	43	19
5	Andrea Belotti	3.64	0.28	1.78	0.56	2.05	0.49	80	45	22
6	Romelu Lukaku	3.82	0.26	1.51	0.66	2.53	0.4	65	43	17
7	Aubameyang	3.86	0.26	1.56	0.64	2.48	0.4	81	52	21
8	Iago Aspas	3.93	0.25	1.67	0.6	2.36	0.42	55	33	14
9	Timo Werner	4.0	0.25	1.63	0.62	2.46	0.41	52	32	13
10	Marco Borriello	4.08	0.24	1.69	0.59	2.42	0.41	49	29	12
11	Anthony Modeste	4.13	0.24	2.2	0.45	1.88	0.53	66	30	16
12	Luis Suárez	4.16	0.24	1.88	0.53	2.21	0.45	79	42	19
13	Bafétimbi Gomis	4.31	0.23	1.68	0.59	2.56	0.39	69	41	16
14	Sadio Mané	4.33	0.23	1.58	0.63	2.75	0.36	52	33	12
15	Diego Costa	4.41	0.23	1.63	0.61	2.71	0.37	75	46	17
16	Jermain Defoe	4.57	0.22	1.73	0.58	2.64	0.38	64	37	14
17	Gonzalo Higuaín	4.58	0.22	1.74	0.57	2.63	0.38	87	50	19
18	Robert Lewandowski	4.68	0.21	2.02	0.49	2.32	0.43	89	44	19
19	Dele Alli	4.92	0.2	1.73	0.58	2.85	0.35	64	37	13
20	Lionel Messi	5.0	0.2	1.69	0.59	2.96	0.34	115	68	23
21	Nikola Kalinic	5.17	0.19	1.55	0.65	3.33	0.3	62	40	12
22	Mauro Icardi	5.29	0.19	2.73	0.37	1.94	0.52	90	33	17
23	Alexis Sánchez	5.35	0.19	1.69	0.59	3.18	0.31	91	54	17
24	Dries Mertens	5.44	0.18	1.61	0.62	3.39	0.3	98	61	18
25	Antoine Griezmann	5.5	0.18	1.65	0.61	3.33	0.3	66	40	12
26	Cristiano Ronaldo	6.5	0.15	2.17	0.46	3.0	0.33	117	54	18
27	Ciro Immobile	6.5	0.15	1.7	0.59	3.81	0.26	104	61	16
28	Sergio Agüero	7.08	0.14	1.77	0.56	4.0	0.25	85	48	12
29	Edin Dzeko	7.21	0.14	1.96	0.51	3.68	0.27	137	70	19
30	Zlatan Ibrahimovic	7.33	0.14	1.86	0.54	3.93	0.25	110	59	15