Following a split between the old Football League and the top English clubs, the first edition of the Premier League took place across the 1992/93 season. Since then, we’ve witnessed two periods of dominance by each of the Manchester Clubs.Manchester United won the first Premier League title, and, under Sir Alex Ferguson, they added another 12 trophies up to the end of 2012/13. Since Ferguson’s departure, Manchester City have taken over, winning four straight EPL titles through to 2023/24. Despite City’s recent period of dominance, there is a theory that the Premier League winner is becoming harder to predict.
Early Exchanges
The first few weeks of the new Premier League campaign, suggest that this could be the most open title race for many years. As the clubs headed into the second international break of 2024/25, two teams remained unbeaten after seven games. Manchester City and Arsenal are the two unbeaten sides, but Liverpool claimed top spot following six wins and a solitary defeat. Those early results have left us with new favourites to win the League this term. City led the betting markets before a ball was kicked, but Arsenal carries shorter odds following those opening seven matches. Liverpool, under new manager Arne Slot, should also maintain their challenge, but the Reds are currently third favourites for the title. The winner’s market is certainly tight, and that seems to back up the theory that the EPL is becoming harder to predict.
Arsenal’s Rise
With Arsenal and Manchester City level on points, it might have been expected that City would carry the lower odds. The market is, however, reflecting the fact that the Gunners are on the rise, and that Mikel Arteta’s squad may be peaking, while their opponents are in decline. For the last two Premier League seasons, Arsenal have offered the only genuine challenge to Manchester City. Last term, the race went all the way down to the final game of the campaign, and it is expected to be just as tight this term.
One issue for Arsenal has been the absence of a prolific striker. Manchester City have Erling Haaland, while the Gunners have lacked a player capable of scoring twenty goals a season. The Gunners didn’t buy a recognised centre forward in the Premier League transfer window, and the goals have been shared around the side. One player who has stepped up to take scoring responsibility this season is the German international Kai Havertz. Signed from Chelsea in the summer of 2023, Havertz scored four times in those opening seven Premier League games of 2024/25. The lack of a prolific scorer is the only factor keeping Arsenal from the title, and that’s another reason why this could be the Gunners’ year.
City Slipping
Manchester City have no issues in the goal-scoring department. In Erling Haaland, they have the most productive striker in world football right now, and he has the capacity to go on and break a number of Premier League records. One concern relates to injuries in midfield. Last season, City struggled for a time after key midfielder Kevin De Bruyne endured an extended spell on the sidelines. This time around, a season-ending injury suffered by defensive midfielder Rodri could have even greater consequences. Rodri’s statistics from 2023/24 suggest he’s going to be a big miss, and his absence could ultimately hand the title to Arsenal at the end of this campaign.
Head to Head
The season could be won and lost based on the games between the three strongest teams. When Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool face each other, the results of those matches may well determine the outcome of the trophy. Recent head-to-head matches between Arsenal and Manchester City also offer an indication as to why the Gunners are the new favourites to win the EPL title. If we include the Community Shield from August 2023, City have now failed to beat Arsenal in four attempts. Two of those games were drawn, while the remaining two were won by Arsenal. If Manchester City are to make it five Premier League trophies in succession, they are going to have to lift their game against their strongest opponents.
While it’s too early to say whether Manchester City’s run of Premier League titles is coming to an end, it certainly seems that the EPL is becoming harder to call. Arsenal pushed Pep Guardiola’s side to the final day last term, and it looks like the race will go down to the wire once again. Liverpool should also remain in contention throughout the campaign. New manager Arne Slot has inherited a strong squad from his predecessor Jurgen Klopp, and the Reds are genuine contenders.
The title is between those three, and it’s much harder to predict a winner than it has been in the recent past.